The World of Tomorrow

Future – People are always intrigued by it and would love to know more about it. This can be seen by the demand for horoscopes in newspapers or at the tarot card reader counter at a fair. In our entire endeavor to know more about future, we always bank upon others to tell us about it. We are more interested in a tarot reader predicting how our health or career would be in the future, than determining it ourselves. Can we make our own future?

I have been doing my own research about how future world would be and what Leadership skills are required to be successful in the future. As part of my research, I came across a company, “Institute for the Future” that creates 10 year forecasts on how the world will be. Dr. Bob Johansen, Distinguished Fellow at the Institute for the Future, along with John Ryan, President of CCL (Creative Center of Leadership)  has written a book “Leaders make the Future” and discussed the Leadership skills that are required in tomorrow’s Leaders. I’d like to share my learning with you. I’ll present this in 3 part series. This blog focuses on the nature of the world that we live in (inspired by the work done by Dr. Bob Johansen). Part 2 would focus on sharing 10 leadership skills for the future as listed by Dr. Bob Johansen. Part 3 would be my perspectives on what we should be doing today to equip ourselves to scale up to these leadership skills.

We are living in a VUCA world. VUCA is a term coined at the US Army War College, which is a graduate school for Generals-to-be in Carlisle, Pennsylvania. VUCA stands for Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguous and this is how the US army college describes the current world for which it must prepare the military leaders. It is no different for Organizations and Leaders. Let us look at these a little more in detail:

·         Volatility – We are living in a world that is changing at a rapid pace. Nature and dynamics of these changes along with the speed of change is creating volatility in the world.

·         Uncertainty – There is lack of predictability and high possibility for surprise. There is limited sense of awareness and understanding of issues and events happening around us. We are operating in a world where we are unclear about present situation and future outcomes.

·         Complexity – With multiple forces at play, there is constant chaos and confusion that surround an organization. A Leader is faced with multiplicity of decision factors. Due to the rapid change in the world, there are an increasing number of forces that are outside the control of the Leader that are influencing his/her world.

·         Ambiguous – There is lack of clarity about meaning of an event. With constant change, there is confusion about the reality. What is real today may not be tomorrow. There is high potential for misreading of the situations. It is very difficult to predict cause-and-effect relationship as with so much change, cause and effect could always be confusing.

Rapid technological changes, increasing global interconnections, climate change, population growth, global age and income disparities are combining to create a highly volatile and unpredictable terrain. In the VUCA world, one has to be prepared to respond to low-probability but high-impact events caused by extreme weather conditions (example – ash clouds disrupting aviation sector in Europe, Tsunami significantly impacting Japanese economy and supply chain of the world), rapid political shifts (example – Stalemate in Indian political scenario and lack of progress on reforms; constant change in stance of Samajwadi party on FDI in retail; Recent elections in Greece and threatening impact on European economy), or major infrastructure failures. Organizations and Leaders must accept uncertainty as inevitable.

We are moving from a world of problems (which demanded speed, analysis and elimination of uncertainty to solve) to a world of dilemmas (which demand patience, sense-making and an engagement with uncertainty). We are faced with dilemmas that are unsolvable, complex and often messy, threatening, confusing and laden with puzzling choices. These require different leadership attributes to address them. Leaders must learn to thrive in the space between judging too soon (classic mistake of the problem-solver) and deciding too late (classic mistake of the academic).

However, I’d agree with Bob Johansen that VUCA is a state of mind. While a Leader could be confused with the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguous, another Leader could make the future by seeing a new VUCA (Vision, Understanding, Clarity and Agility). Let us look at these in more particular:

·         Vision – From Volatility around us, a Leader could create a vision. It is an intent that seeks to CREATE the future. The Leader is not following the directions of the forecast but is willing to create his/her own future. She has a clear intent, clear direction for her actions.

·         Understanding – Leader has to stop, look and listen. In the face of uncertainty, listening and understanding can help Leader discover new ways of thinking and acting.

·         Clarity – Leader has to make sense of the chaos. The VUCA world rewards clarity because people are so confused that they grasp anything that helps them make sense out of chaos.

·         Agility – With rapid change around us, Leaders cannot make multi-year plan and rest. With changing world, Leader has to be agile. She has to leverage her networks to be able to get things done quickly as against depending upon hierarchies. VUCA world severely punishes the rigidity and brittleness of hierarchies.

Hence, while VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguous) world could be threatening, at the same time, it gives Leaders opportunities to thrive in it through the new VUCA (Vision, Understanding, Clarity and Agility). Leaders cannot predict the future but they must make sense of it in order to thrive. That’s the ultimate paradox of Leaders.

As a Leader, you have the ability to make your own world of tomorrow. The question is not how capable you are to the task, as given the orientation is towards the future, all of us are equally capable. The question is how willing are you to the task? How willing are you to make your own future? As Alvin Toffler said “The illiterate of 21^st century will not be those who cannot read & write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn”

Reboot the Manager

The world has changed dramatically over last many decades. However, the role of the manager has remained constant since the industrial revolution. What should be the role of the manager in the new world? Do we need a manager in the first place? What value does a manager bring to the team?

Role, managers are playing today predates back to the command and control mode (primarily derived from Military). In that model, Officer makes all the decisions and gives command to his troops. When that model was brought into the Organizations, Managers made the requisite decisions as they had better understanding of the underlying work. All associates performed similar work. While people were part of the teams, machines (during manufacturing era) were the critical resources. Manager was critical for information flow. He ensured that the requisite information flowed in all directions (from top to down and vice versa). Managers job was primarily as a control – ensure that all the rules were followed; no risks were taken and all procedures complied with. He directed the associates on allocation of work (deciding who does what). He derived significant power because of his position (as he is the primary face of the company to the associates) and expertise (as he knows more about work than any of the associates – atleast deemed that way).

Today, the world has changed. We are in service economy and people (not machines) are the critical resources. Knowledge of the people is critical for the success of the Organizations. Today, associates know more about their work than their managers and hence are the best people to make decisions. The work is so diverse in nature that there cannot be standard procedures to comply with. Today, there is abundance of information (as against lack of it) and for all practical purposes, a CEO can directly email an associate on the floor with a question and get response within minutes. We have sophisticated workflow and MIS (Management Information Systems) that provides an immediate update on the status of work.

However, the role of the Manager has not evolved. Unfortunately, many still tend to operate in the command and control model though the underlying reality has changed. They tend to draw power from their position (without the underlying expertise) and try to exert control on the associates using the power. Associates tend to resist such power usage and this leads to unhealthy conflict amongst the teams and loss of respect for the Manager.

A recent Wall Street Journal article talks about example of an organization that is operating without bosses (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303379204577474953586383604.html) - very radical approach. I think the idea has merit and could be tried in few areas. However, it may not be possible to do so in all spheres of work (and is radical enough that there would be resistance to even accepting such a way is possible). However, I think time has come to question the traditional role of the manager and re-look at what is expected out of her today. In my mind, role of the manager has to dramatically change on the following dimensions:

Control to Facilitator:  Managers should come to terms with the fact that they are not the most knowledgeable people on the team. The associates who perform the work are more aware of the situations and have the necessary expertise to address them. Hence, Manager should move to the role of a Facilitator who facilitates the decisions as against the one making them.

Adherence to Disruptive: In the earlier days, compliance to rules and adherence to procedures is gold standard. However, with the constant change, focus is shifting to disruptive innovation. This would mean that a Manager has to encourage associates to go out of comfort zone and experiment. They should break the rules (try out new approaches). She should encourage associates to take risks and reward them for it (even if that action results in failure). She should be comfortable in dealing with ambiguity (as she may have to support initiatives/plans/actions that may not have a determined outcome but just a possibility). Manager also has to keep connecting the larger organizational context to the work done by the associates so that they can channelize their innovation efforts in the right direction.

Short term to Long Term: Managers in today’s world cannot operate just by focusing on short term. They should be able to balance both short term and long term objectives. Hence, while today’s results are being achieved, they should constantly focus on the implications of the long term (given the changing nature of the world). In order to do so, they should keep abreast of what is changing in the external world and how it impacts their operations.

Manage to Coach: Managers have to transform themselves as coaches. Today, associates do not like to be directed. They like to be engaged and constantly challenged. The peanut butter approach also does not work. They should focus on each of the individuals on the team. Hence, as a Coach, she has to understand the strengths of each of her team members and see how she can leverage these strengths for success of the team. She should also channelize the efforts/energy of the associate to further build on their strengths. As a Coach, she should also understand that the motives/drivers of each of the associate can be different and has to adapt her approach accordingly.

In my mind, a Manager has to first change on these four dimensions to evolve her role to the needs of the modern world. This requires a significant change in her mindset. Her value to the team does not come from her expertise or position but how she could facilitate the team for better success. Do I think we need Managers in today’s world? Yes but in the role of Coaches as against pure managers. What do you think? How do you think Managers have to change to adapt to the new world?